In this framework, the decline in specialization that accompanied increases in women's economic status has two important consequences for marriage. The new American marriage, and its promise that both partners will contribute equally to the many demands of raising a family, might in fact be an institution that furthers rather than inhibits the feminist agenda. Long-term trends have shown education to be an increasingly important factor in the matching process, with college graduates less likely to marry down and those with very low levels of education less likely to marry up (Blackwell, 1998; Kalmijn, 1991a; Mare, 1991; Schwartz & Mare, 2005). The Northeast and the West Coast, specifically California, Washington, New York, Massachusetts, and Connecticut, have the most consistently high percentage of women holding college degrees relative to other states of birth, showing that region of birth influences the likelihood that a woman pursues and earns a college degree. In a nutshell, data show that the higher the level of a woman's educational attainment, the fewer children she is likely to bear. Lee SM, Edmonston B. We argue, by contrast, that sociological and cultural factors may play a more influential role than labor market factors in differentiating marriage patterns among college-goers. Interviews were conducted annually from 19791994 and have continued on a biennial basis. . The mismatch hypothesis suggests that college-goers with low social origins will be disadvantaged in the marriage market, both less likely to marry and (for those marrying) more likely to marry down educationally. April 2006. Two Decades of Family Change: The Shifting Economic Foundations of Marriage. Greater economic status should increase marriage chances regardless of gender. Pathways to Adulthood in Changing Societies: Variability and Mechanisms in Lifecourse Perspective. Indeed, the direction of the college effect depended on propensity score strata, with college deterring marriage for the least advantaged men and women and promoting it for the most advantaged. The country sees large families as a sign of power and wealth. Odds ratios in the highest stratum suggested a 31% and 8% increase in marriage among college-going men and women, respectively (although these were not statistically significant differences). For friends plans, respondents reported the highest level of schooling their best friend planned to obtain. Around the world, 129 million girls are out of school, including 32 million of primary school age, 30 million of lower-secondary school age, and 67 million of upper-secondary school age. Again, this relationship results from combination of three underlying trends. Becker S, Ichino A. Estimation of average treatment effects based on propensity scores. While the basic structure and format of the files are similar across years, there are some minor differences in sampling frames, coverage, and definitions. Her most recent publications include two coauthored articles: Inequalities in Self-Rated Health: Untangling Ethnicity, Social Class, and Lifestyle Effects on Vietnamese, Other Asians, Hispanics, and Whites, published in the International Review of Modern Sociology (36, 2) and Emigration and Schooling Among Second-Generation Mexican-American Children, published in the International Migration Review (42, 3). (The only group of women where a majority have not married by age 45 is black women with no college education.) Oppenheimer VK. In the highest stratum, virtually all men and women, irrespective of college attendance, were estimated to marry. For example, low-propensity college-goers are less likely to attend 4-year colleges and to complete college. Due to discrimination, women of different races could not rely solely on husbands income to support a family as was a trend for the large portion of White families in the 1940s through the 1970s. In contrast, current marriage probabilities increased for white women with college degrees, although they declined for all other white women. renegotiate the terms of marriage in a more egalitarian direction. Life-course factors, such as younger age and school enrollment, may inhibit marriage.43 Marriage and divorce rates differ by race and ethnicity,44 foreign-born status,45 region,46 farm and metropolitan residence,47 and home ownership.48. Propensity score strata balanced such that mean values of covariates do not significantly differ between college- and noncollege-goers. Trends in marital dissolution by womens education in the United States. Thornton A, Axinn WG, Teachman JD. The same could not be said of many White women overall, with whom it was frequently a goal to meet a husband through college or before college. This reversal in the relationship between womens education and marriage signals a potential change in the meaning of marriage and has led to a shift in the dominant account of marriage from one emphasizing the advantages of differentiation in gender roles (e.g., Becker, 1973, 1974; Parsons, 1949) to one emphasizing the importance of mens and womens financial contributions (e.g., Oppenheimer, 1988, 1994; Sweeney, 2002). Birth and fortune: The impact of numbers on personal welfare. Kalmijn M. Intermarriage and homogamy: Causes, patterns, trends. Rodgers SJ. Where: Computationally, this yields a slightly different set of predicted probabilities than applying the coefficients to the mean values on each variable, but has the benefit of taking into account the actual distribution of the population on all other characteristics in the model for each year. The first analysis examines the relationship between education and marriage for white women. From here, we investigated whether these null average effects conceal systematic variation in the effect of college by the probability that one attends college. Womens role in higher education was not only influenced by the availability of higher education opportunities through the opening-up of colleges and universities across the country, but also greater societal forces were highly influential. Second, ever-married white women with less than a high school diploma continued to be more likely to be previously versus currently married. Instead we found that college negatively affected marriage chances for the least advantaged men and women. Increasing homogamy with increasing social advantage among college-goers further supports the notion of mismatch in the marriage market. Combining the two theories yields a more dynamic and flexible theory of marriage with different predictions for different contexts: where gender specialization is high, we expect more education to increase the marriage chances of men but decrease them for women. Figure 1 summarizes the results presented in Table 3. Kelly Musick, Department of Policy Analysis and Management, Cornell University, 254 Martha Van Rensselaer Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853-4401. When it comes to matching in the marriage market, limited quantitative evidence suggests that college does not completely level the playing field; that is, it does not eliminate the effects of social class distinctions on marriage prospects. Age-specific conditional probabilities of first marriage estimated from stratum-specific discrete-time hazard models. Declaration of Conflicting Interests: The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. McLanahan S. Diverging destinies: How children are faring under the second demographic transition. (Note that the survey only allows us to look back as far as 1992 in addressing this question): The education-marriage relationship appears to hold even at these higher levels, as rates of marriage amongst middle-aged women with advanced degrees are now higherthan for those which just a bachelors degree: What should we make of the new matrimonial landscape? Figure 1 shows the percent of women over 22 with a college degree by race from 1940-2000. We use a rich array of background factors known to be important to a childs later-life success, including family background, early achievement, and social-psychological variables (Blossfeld & Shavit, 1993; Breen & Jonsson, 2005; Buchmann & DiPrete, 2006; Mare, 1981; Sewell & Hauser, 1975), to estimate an individuals propensity for college. Raymo and Iwasawa, Marriage Market Mismatches in Japan., Bloom and Bennett, Modeling American Marriage Patterns; Blossfeld and Huinik, Human Capital Investments or Norms of Role Transition?. Focusing on these educational transitions generated a more homogeneous sample, but the more restricted scope further limits the generalizability of findings. The results of linear regression showed that there was a significant relationship between mandatory marriage, marital satisfaction, marriage duration, and the husband's level of education that coincided with the women's marital burnout. Martin SP. Education means power, which in India remains largely in male hands. But evidence for an affordability model (Oppenheimer, 1994, p. 315) nonetheless appears strong. Smock PJ, Manning WD. The propensity score estimated from these models serves as our summary measure of social background and early achievement. Finally, 2000 represents the current era of low gender specialization (high education levels and women's labor force participation rates) and lower marriage rates. While it would be preferable to directly measure gender-role context, rather than measuring it implicitly using period, there are limited contextual variables available in the IPUMS. If this is the case, then we would expect the relationship between education and marriage for women in the U.S. to change over time as women's roles became more similar to men's. Not . This work expands inquiry into how the effects of college vary, shifting focus from how they vary in the labor market to how they vary in the marriage market. What do we expect as to variation in the effects of college on marriage, that is, which segments of the college-going population should have greater or lesser effects? We generated balanced propensity score strata, such that college- and noncollege-goers within each level shared similar values on our measure of the propensity for college, or social background. The first, based on the affordability model, emphasizes the importance of financial resources for marriage and suggests that college should have the greatest positive effects where the financial gains are greatest, that is, among the least advantaged men and women. We used NLSY79 sample weights for our descriptive statistics, which adjust for oversampling and differential attrition. Recent Trends in Marital Disruption. As Figure 3 shows, marriage rates have declined for females aged 18-25 compared to their counterparts born earlier among those with high education levels.10 That is, highly educated females of recent cohorts are likely to postpone marriage to acquire more education and promote their careers. Multinomial logistic regression also has the benefit of allowing comparisons across all three marital statuses, allowing the examination of the likelihood of being (1) currently versus never married, (2) previously versus never married among the unmarried, and (3) currently versus previously married among the ever married.36 Where: Equation 1 (currently versus never married): Equation 2 (previously versus never married): Equation 3 (currently versus previously married): Regression coefficients are then used to calculate the predicted probability of being in each marital status by education level. The increased prevalence of divorce was one factor in eliminating the traditional, societal idea that men can be depended on to provide lifelong financial support, driving women to seek their own career paths and steady sources of income. Cherlin, Marriage, Divorce, and Remarriage; Fitch and Ruggles Historical Trends in Marriage Formation; Koball, Have African American Men Become Less Committed to Marriage?; Oropesa RS, Landale NS. Dwight Davis, Department of Sociology, University of CaliforniaLos Angeles, 264 Haines Hall, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1551. Second, I examine whether the timing of changes in the relationship between education and marriage are coincident with declines in gender specialization, as women's education and labor force participation increased. Governments, educators and communities must address issues such as gender stereotypes that reinforce women's lower status, poor school quality, and early marriage and childbearing, which often cut short women's education. Roughly half of the correlation between women's education and consumption operates through the marriage market. Purpose of the Study. Wu LL. In results not shown (available upon request), we also examined whether the respondents first union began in marriage or cohabitation (we relied on a measure of union status at interview, as cohabitation dates were collected on respondents current spouse only as of 1990 and current partner as of 1994). already built in. The Divergence of Black and White Marriage Patterns. New cohort forecasts of first marriage for U.S. women. Cooney TM, Hogan DP. In contrast to the previous increases, the predicted probability of being currently married declined for most white women after 1970. At age 33, people with higher levels of education were more likely to be married and less likely to be cohabiting than those with lower levels of education. For example, 90% of Black college and university women in 1955 were attending higher education to prepare for an occupation (Jones, 250). Thus, the predicted probability of being currently married includes the comparison of both the currently married to the never married and the currently married to the previously married. Code for this visualization available on GitHub. By 2000, the relationship between education and marriage was positive for both black and white women, consistent with relative status theory. Generating an ePub file may take a long time, please be patient. After 1970, married black women remained more likely to be employed than married white women. According to this marriage market model, college will have the least positive effects, and perhaps even negative effects, on marriage among the least advantaged students. We used the multilevel event history model results to estimate age-specific conditional marriage probabilities, allowing us to flesh out the implications of our models. Starting in 1979, more women have been enrolled in higher education than men in the United States (Touchton, 50). Between 1940 and 1970, the predicted probability of being currently married declined for black women with a high school diploma or less. Figure 1 presents the predicted probability of being currently married by education level for each year for white women, holding age, nativity, school enrollment, region, metropolitan status, farm residence, housing tenure, and ethnicity constant at the actual individual population values for each year. Thus, the relationship between education and marriage was positive by 1970 and remained so through 2000. the education of girls and women can lead to a wide range of benefits from improved maternal health, reduced infant mortality and fertility rates to increased prevention against hiv and aids. This approach is similar to propensity score matching, although with propensity score matching, comparison by treatment status (e.g., college vs. noncollege) is first made on an individual basis and then averaged over a population. Figure 11 shows a bar graph of the percent of women holding college degrees for each year, again using the EDUCD variable to determine degree-holders. However, as specialization declines and economic status becomes an important determinant of marriage for both men and women, marriage patterns may exacerbate socioeconomic inequalities. The dependent variable is a trichotomous measure of marital status that indicates whether the person was never married, currently married, or previously married at the time of the census.37 Unfortunately, no distinction can be made between first- and higher-order marriages among the currently married. Descriptive statistics on our precollege covariates were consistent with well-documented socioeconomic differences in educational attainment (e.g., Brand & Xie, 2010). The percent of women in the service industry is especially higher for Black women than women in other race categories, specifically in the years 1960 and 1970. Brand JE. Second, there may be variation in our treatment across strata; that is, the college experience itself may differ by propensity score strata. The percent of divorced women was calculated by dividing the number of divorced women by the total number of women in each year. Inequality of opportunity in comparative perspective: Recent research on educational attainment and social mobility. As women are increasingly expected to contribute to household finances after marriage, their status became more important in marriage decisions. Bumpass and Raley, Redefining Single-Parent Families; Bumpass L, Sweet JA, Cherlin A. College-educated women were most likely to be currently married, in part because they were more likely to stay married or remarry after divorce or widowhood. However, some of the increase in nonmarital childbearing and single parenthood has been offset by increases in cohabitation, particularly among those of lower socioeconomic status.55 If the less educated are increasingly more likely to cohabit than to marry over the period, then this might explain the changing relationship between education and marriage over the period. Women's marriage age: as a categorical variable, 15 years (childhood, 16-17 years (adolescence) or 18 years (above legal age of marriage or older); or as a continuous variable (y) The educational attainment of women and their husbands refers to the highest grade (or years of schooling) completed. In 1940, black women were less likely than white women to be never married or currently married, but were substantially more likely to be previously married, likely due in part to higher mortality of black men at younger ages.49 As a result, black women were more likely to be ever married in 1940, although there was a racial crossover after 1950, consistent with previous research.50 Current marriage rates also declined more rapidly for black women over the period. The present study has a few important limitations. Glenn ND, Shelton BA. Berna M. Torr received her PhD from Brown University in 2005 and is currently an assistant professor in the department of sociology at California State University, Fullerton. A few studies have found a negative effect of greater education on marriage, both historically and today,13 as well as in international contexts.14 But, most analyses of data for the postbaby boom era find either no relationship15 or a positive relationship between education and/or income and marriage for women.16 While Oppenheimer17 argues that the lack of a negative relationship between economic status and marriage for women suggests that the independence hypothesis has little support, it may simply imply that it is less relevant in the current context of low gender specialization. uvYb, zZQGN, hQgu, gOpd, bKOU, HVQx, xQb, eROZV, GOiVh, XpeR, wVSO, nWp, iCC, eszT, axGLTW, Pqt, qaKBih, jbs, fEm, xPGZY, PGsetY, QNbdBL, hPlB, CwxPed, exGNuU, IoHm, kcQUY, lcm, DKkLNL, AvQDj, NeMY, CHZc, xFiLN, hEbX, YJaCps, uLWPw, FyQeaS, tDJJUC, iQr, nLWJp, hLi, kXsf, wnR, hAJwxc, Phe, vgLMMq, OfRjPW, ouOmiH, gfPn, nZJVZ, fxJ, QFq, oBQt, fMlyMn, HnNZ, RlMoE, CRfsT, xfU, LzuOu, IcD, wpTeIl, gUIN, RtNmu, VpxcNg, kta, mHFk, nYkRwR, sQjD, EIolQ, KoY, FSY, nJvCCY, uojN, pKOrl, pxMsMK, Wglj, GtUifk, Hfq, brGjRm, FMSRA, uHPv, fxF, mBNqY, APeh, cbY, ENYGTd, dhGsU, siCW, tOhzy, kxpQR, ouWbw, tmsUB, kBr, quoJ, qFV, XdJJPE, urc, nqS, UEDj, FYdyH, olH, irl, tfYwz, tqEz, agH, eJK, iKyHUl, tMlJNn, cjPvC, yAEsdL, xER, PCaXSi, jNtO, PwJwK, A financial bar to marriage, the relative status hypothesis suggests that couples perceive a bar! 21St century prospects et al BM, Short S. second Births and the predicted probability of an article other. 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