The information presented is provided for information purposes only, and is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other advice, is general in nature, and is not specific to you. Click here to find personal data about Michael Ashton including phone numbers, addresses, directorships, electoral roll information, related property prices and other useful information. On the asset side, the assets that a typical insurance company owns are like everyone else in the world, stocks and bonds, that tend to move in opposite directions when growth changes. Stewart: Okay, so here I go, here goes the wacky questions. New Jersey. Michael: Absolutely. And so, you really can't compare old era baseball players with new era baseball players. Patek Philippe Nautilus. I had no idea where you were going. Michael: I do too. var address = $this.attr("data-email-to-name") + String.fromCharCode(64) + $this.attr("data-email-to-domain"); He earned his Bachelor's Degree in Business Management and Finance from Mount Mercy University. I may be wrong. Michael was born on November 2, 1949 in Clinton, IA to Thomas and Geraldine (Christopherson) Ashton. CONTACT Similar Advisors Similar Advisors Danna Jacobs CRD# 5366446 Legacy Care Wealth, LLC But he is also an entrepreneur who founded Enduring Investments, a boutique inflation specialty firm which counts as clients everyone from white-shoe investment banks to tennis-shoe soccer moms. Stewart: I am an opinionated human being, with regard to inflation, with nearly zero data. And what happens in that market is always sort of interesting, since so much of it is inflation. Michael: Well, that's what inflation is, it's a series of anecdotes. And by the way, that's one of the reasons that inflation options, why the hedge costs so much as opposed to doing it yourself synthetically, and actually paying realized volatility as opposed to implied volatility. Except that in renting, you don't own the asset value. } 2 years later ACE Limited, the global insurance and reinsurance group operating in over 50 countries, completed its acquisition of Methuen. And then, if it's not a 100%, "What percent do you expect to eventually collect?" We're like way over time. And you can go out there on their site and you can look at all the ways that they do what they do. Since 2003, he has been a leading force in developing new instruments and methods for accessing and hedging various inflation exposures. And eventually, you open up the door and the bag is full. Michael: The actual inflation debate is a super long discussion. And right now you would have to do some sort of structured finance thing, rather than define the treaty a different way. North American Region at Volkswagen Credit, Inc. Herndon, Virginia, United States 547 followers 500+ connections Join to connect Volkswagen Credit,. $this.html('' + address); We work hard to collect and provide you the information you need to find a financial advisor whos right for you. But TIPS have medical care inflation in them, because it all aggregates up to headline inflation. And that's the unanchoring of inflation expectations that the fed worries about. Wong ) and classmates from all over the world who helped make the course an enjoyable . Michael Ashton. Obituary. Michael: Oh, I thought I was going to ask you anything. }); 2022 Gibraltar Finance, Gibraltar Association for New Technologies, List of Electronic Money and Payment Institution Agents. Stewart: But I mean, you advise companies, you advise insurance companies as well? What I would tell the 22 year old Ashton is, what the 22 year old Ashton already had learned in driver's ed, but didn't understand the context that it applies to lots of other contexts, and that is "aim high in steering.". (Employees and Sales figures are modelled). This is-. Michael Ashton Assistant Dean: Library, Distance Education, Instructional Design, and Tutoring & Learning Center Contact (805) 553-4671 mashton@vcccd.edu LinkedIn Office LLR 220 Monday: 8:00 am-5:00 pm, Tuesday: 8:00 am-6:00 am, Wednesday: 8:00 am-6:00 pm, Thursday: 8:00 am-5:00 pm, Friday: 8:00 am-3:00 pm Education Since 2003, when he traded the first interbank U.S. CPI swaps, and 2004 when he was the lead market maker for the CME's CPI Futures contract, he has played an integral role in developing new instruments and . Stewart: blah, blah." Mike, welcome. If you like us, please like us on all the major platforms. And so, you get this diversification effect, and it's a wonderful thing. So that's sort of on the asset side where you've got the exposure. The inflation looks a lot like the sort of risk that we would reinsure in other contexts. But we literally have never seen anything like that. So when you do that math, that's about right. This includes an average layover time of around 17 min. And if you price your worker's comp appropriately, it still doesn't mean that you don't have that long tail. Prior to this, he had a 20-year career at Wall Street, where he worked as a trader, strategist, and salesman at large investment banks. Read More. 4/23/2022 10:38 AM. You advise people for a living on inflation. $("a[data-email-to-name][data-email-to-domain]").each(function() { 2 years later ACE Limited, the global insurance and reinsurance . And so there is another side, we just have to dis-aggregate these risks that are all bundled up in TIPS. I tend to look at car prices and I noticed that the price of a particular truck, the used prices are so strong that people are asking nearly new prices for trucks that have been they're a year old, they got miles on them, whatever. Michael Ashton is Managing Principal at Enduring Investments, a specialty consulting firm focused on the inflation market. And I love this audience because this audience would totally get this argument. So we can debate that later. Michael: Well, that's actually the real problem with the inflation options market is, is the dealers end up having to sell all the vol, and just like an insurance company, eventually, you sold all the volatility, you sold all the options you want to sell, and there's no way for the dealer to reinsure that risk. I mean, if I say that the wages have roughly tripled, you'd think back to what people were getting coming out of college in the early 1980s, and what they're getting coming out of college now, and you'd go, "Yeah, that doesn't sound wildly off." Sep 15, 2017 - Read all of the posts by Michael Ashton on E-piphany. And so, the person coming out of college now has a lifestyle that's not terribly dissimilar to the kid who was coming out of college back then. Thanks for listening. And when I get upset, occasionally, these days at something that's happening in my business or whatever, I sit down and I think to myself, in 10 years, am I going to care about what just happened? The other one I've always heard is, "Oh, if you think inflation is two and a half percent, then go ahead and eat your iPad," because the technology component pulls it down. Find company research, competitor information, contact details & financial data for Michael Ashton Inc of New York, NY. . }); After over 20 years I the insurance sector, including 15 years in the Lloyds market, Michael joined Gibraltar Finance in 2013 as Senior Finance Executive Insurance and Pensions. Who was going to be the seller of medical care inflation? And it worked, they were very happy with it. Follow us, we appreciate that. I value connecting with Michael: Long-term care is a classic one. Ready to get started? Now, we can talk about the individual components and what happens, but overall they seem to get the broad answer close to right. Senior Executive. And I think one of the most compelling arguments about why ShadowStats can't possibly be right, is given by compounding. If you put a bag of microwave popping corn in the microwave, and you set the microwave going, after a couple of seconds, you'll hear a pop. And that's 40% of the CPI, so that month you would have an insane year on year change. Michael: Well, we always seem to start with that, and you would think it would be a very easy answer. Textile machinery 306900. And so those measured rent inflation numbers are lower than the asking rent numbers by quite a bit. Michael: If we were able to take a healthcare, medical care claims, and discount them by some medical cost index and reinsure that piece, and then separately hedge the medical care cost index, that's sort of the holy grail, you'll be able to get a lower price on the reinsurance for the true property casualty risk. And so, whether juicing is allowed, it changes, or whether it's caught, it changes. The rules of baseball do change. var $this = $(this); Or are these one-off anecdotes? Allstate Personal Financial Representative: Michael Ashton at 241 E Dominick St, Rome, NY 13440. $("a[data-email-to-name][data-email-to-domain]").each(function() { But in both cases, they're clearly substitutes and they move together. And the answer was, and this is the actual answer back from the BLS, "If nobody paid rent, that component of the CPI would go to zerominus 100%.". 212.517.6655, Patek Philippe Annual Calendar, Regulator, Patek Philippe Annual Calendar Chronograph, Patek Philippe Nautilus, Dual Time, Chronograph, Patek Philippe Cloisonne Enamel World Time, Patek Philippe Aquanaut, 20th Anniversary, Patek Philippe Annual Calendar, Dual Time Zone, Patek Philippe In-Line Perpetual Calendar, Patel Philippe Annual Calendar Chronograph, Patek Philippe Perpetual Split Chronograph, Patek Philippe Annual Calendar, Chronograph, Patek Philippe Chronograph, Annual Calendar, Patek Philippe Perpetual Split, Chronograph, Patek Philippe Perpetual Calendar Retrograde, Patek Philippe Perpetual Calendar Chronograph, Patek Philippe Split, Perpetual, Chronograoh, Patek Philippe Split, Perpetual Chronograph. Fabricated rubber products, nec 357703. How do you see them dealing with this, what I think is going to be temporary? If you know the BondData or MoneyData product - I was writing on those products back then. Patek Philippe Officer-Style Calatrava Ref# 5153G-012 | London Limited Edition, 2015 Breguet Numerals "1 of 80 Examples" Complete, RARE Mr. Ashton is a pioneer in the U.S. inflation derivatives market. And some of that was luck, but some of it was policy. Stewart: and gown. But what looks like reinsurance in the financial world? Michael Ashton, CFA aka "The Inflation Guy" - Inflation Products and Markets Expert Morristown, New Jersey, United States 2K followers 500+ connections Join to connect Enduring Investments LLC. View the profiles of people named Michael Ashton. So what can insurers do? Michael Ashton Director, Remarketing Sales. Stewart: My name's Stewart Foley. But the long tail lines, like worker's comp, med mal, long-term care-. Absolutely. Stewart: There's a guy that runs something called ShadowStats. Stewart: What's your typical How do you apply your knowledge to the-. You think of inflation as being this steady thing that affects all prices, but that's not the way prices change. But that's what their method says. I'm not going into a lot of detail, but one of the things we had to go figure out was, who was going to be the other side? And I think that there's some evidence that the microwave is getting hotter and that's one of the reasons we're getting more of those anecdotes. And so you end up getting correlated assets going in the wrong direction, when you have inflation going up. And one of the answers, one of the long-term answers is that if we redefine the reinsurance treaty in real sort of adjusted terms, and separate out that long tail financial risk, which is inflation, from the long tail, insurance risk, then you can get a lower price from the reinsurer. I thought you were going to ask why they're cheering, which would be a good question. var address = $this.attr("data-email-to-name") + String.fromCharCode(64) + $this.attr("data-email-to-domain"); So is there inflation today? I'm going to screw it up. Shelled cacao beans . Stewart: Some anecdotal stuff, there are shortages in semiconductor chips, there are shortages in shipping containers, and on top of that, we managed to wedge a gigantic ship in the Suez Canal forever, which sent shipping rates through the roof. Focus on what's actually going on, aim high in steering. And you wait another couple seconds and another kernel pops, that's also an anecdote. When I was at Lake Forest College, that number's not very far off. 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