The Polish central bank hiked its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to 3.5% on March 8, to its highest level for nine years. Incumbent U.S. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) The country has also welcomed swathes of refugees from Ukraine. Core inflation should remain persistently high throughout the forecast horizon as higher energy prices, labour shortages and supply bottlenecks drive price growth for services and industrial goods. The government in January temporarily cut value added tax on gas, food and gasoline in a bid to contain surging consumer prices, and headline inflation dropped to an annual 8.5% in February from 9.4% in January as a result. The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in at 42.0 in October, down from 43.0 in September. Prospects vary considerably across emerging regions. "In 2021, the GDP increase will reach 4.4 percent, and 4.2 percent in 2022," Polish Economic Institute experts (PIE) wrote. Capital Economics has revised down its 2022 GDP growth forecast for Poland from 4.5% to 3.5% below consensus expectations among economists as the war in Ukraine shows no sign of abating. WARSAW, 10 April 2022 - The World Bank has lowered its gross domestic product (GDP) annual growth forecast for Poland to 3.9 percent in 2022, as the Russian invasion of Ukraine is hitting hard the economies of Europe and Central Asia, says the World Bank's latest Regional Economic Update. The war in Ukraine will have a significant impact on economic activity in Poland in the forecast horizon, mainly due to a deterioration in consumer sentiment, a collapse in trade with Russia and Ukraine and increased inflation, the EC said. The HICP inflation was seen at 6.8 percent in 2022 and 3.8 percent in 2023. About As a result, the economists believe the NBP will likely remain hawkish favoring higher interest rates to keep inflation in check though the timing and scale of future policy tightening moves remains uncertain, dependent on risk appetite in the foreign exchange market and demand dynamics. Capital Economics has revised down its 2022 GDP growth forecast for Poland from 4.5% to 3.5% below consensus expectations among economists as the war in Ukraine shows no sign of abating. The COVID-19 Pandemic catalyzed an unprecendented demand in digital transformation around the globe, and Poland's economy was . But high inflation, rising interest rates, and government raids on business means investors may stay on the sidelines. On a display at a gas station, a liter of diesel costs 7.19 zloty. The country's HICP inflation will reach 11.6 percent on average this year and 7.3 percent in 2023, according to the EC. Rapid economic growth and other societal changes have benefited some segments of the population more than others, contributing to a deep divide between liberal, pro-European parties and those purporting to defend national interests and "traditional" Polish Catholic values. The surveyed experts predict that last year the Polish economy grew by 5.5%, 2.5% each recession in 2020. The Ukraine war is expected to hit exports, create supply-chain disruptions and push inflation higher in the country. "In normal circumstances, the NBP could look through the supply shocks and focus on demand-pull pressures, but that leeway has been eroded in the last 24 months," JPMorgan economists said"At this stage, there is no downside to sounding hawkish: it supports the currency and can be reversed without losing credibility if, later on, the situation is not so bad.". Elevated cost-pressures, higher uncertainty and tighter financing conditions are also expected to lead to firms postponing their investment projects, including in the construction sector. Last update : Summer 2022 Economic Forecast (14/07/2022). Poland's economy has had a strong start to the year, but as the war in neighboring Ukraine enters its second month there are fears its growth could be about to get hit from multiple fronts. Real GDP is projected to expand by 4.4% in 2022 and by 1.8% in 2023. In a note last week, JPMorgan said forecasts must be read with wide error bands, with strong underlying inflation pressures expected to persist in Poland over the next few months. Priceless Stradivarius violin looted from Poland during WWII found in Paris, No rate hike due to global slowdown says rate-setting body, EC deputy head calls Polish talks 'step in the right direction', Monetary council puts interest rates on hold despite inflation, Governing party wants to limit immunity of MPs and judges, Foreign Ministry produces fans guide to World Cup in Qatar, Four tonnes of Nazi gold found in buried 18th century palace canister, say WWII treasure hunters, From past to present, Britains influence on Warsaws landscape reveals a longstanding architectural friendship, Dutch troops to help train Ukrainian troops in Poland and Germany, Poland to help erect temporary houses for refugees in Ukraine. In its previous forecast, released in February, the EC predicted a 5.5 percent GDP growth for Poland in 2022 and a 4.2 percent increase in 2023. [i] Despite better-than-expected economic data earlier this year, the NBP report published in mid-July downgraded forecasts for Poland's economic growth . Russia's invasion of Ukraine has had major consequences for Poland. Consumption and, to a lesser extent, investment growth is expected to slow considerably, partly offset by fiscal policy. The country's HICP inflation will reach 11.6 percent on average this year and 7.3 percent in 2023, according to the EC. Rising commodity prices, booming demand and supply side bottlenecks have all contributed to a steady and marked rise in inflation in recent months, which reached 15.6% in June. Capital Economics' Peach highlighted that higher commodity prices in particular will push up food and energy inflation, squeezing real incomes and household spending. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), After strong GDP growth in the second half of 2021, the war in Ukraine will take a toll. Poland's dovish majority in the central bank is also suggesting an end to rate hikes as growth is expected to slow strongly in 2023, but keeping inflation in check may be difficult with the . However, there is another upside risk to inflation in the country, according to the analysts: the European gas market. During that time, although Poland disappeared from the map of . Although the rise in new COVID-19 infections at the beginning of 2022 is expected to weigh on the short-term economic outlook, particularly for services, economic growth is projected to gather pace from the second quarter onwards. The main medium-term challenges are linked to the shortages of skilled workers and prevalence of micro and smaller firms with low productivity and weak connections to local, national and international markets. is among the incumbent members of Maryland's congressional delegation who won re-election on Tuesday. Click on the button below to get started. We want to hear from you. Economy COUNTRY CONTEXT Poland's well-diversified economy has proven to be one of the most resilient economies in the EU, recovering strongly in 2021 after a relatively small contraction in GDP of 2.2 percent in 2020. In 2023, despite a pick-up in growth rates, a low carryover is expected to leave the annual GDP growth at 1.5%. Client Log In, Facebook Poland's energy regulator in December approved a 54% increase in gas bills, and JPMorgan's economists said further price hikes may be necessary. Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commoditiesdata and analysis. Poland's Morawiecki said that next year his government will spend more than 100 billion zlotys ($21.4 billion) "or maybe even 130 billion zlotys ($27.8 billion)" on modernizing the armed . Poland is Europe's sixth-largest economy by GDP and a major producer of machinery, vehicles and electronics, as well as a host of minerals including coal, copper, zinc and rock salt. If demand side data weaken from March, that will strengthen the NBP's ability to argue in the dovish direction," JPMorgan said. After strong GDP growth in the second half of 2021, the war in Ukraine will take a toll. The downward forecast revision "reflects . Mathias Cormann added that the economic growth would start to weaken slightly as of 2023 but would remain strong. The last 30 years have witnessed Poland's greatest economic success in the history of its independence. Sep 27, 2022 The outlook is for growth, but the path is narrowing. However, an inflow of Ukrainian refugees will compensate for some of the shortfall in consumption, the EU body added. Addressing such challenges is key for digital and green transitions and ensuring their inclusiveness. Patrick Pleul | Picture Alliance | Getty Images, Energy sanctions on Russia need support from European voters, Estonia Prime Minister says, Przemysl train station in Poland becomes relief center for Ukrainians, 3.6 million people have so far fled the war. Meanwhile, private consumption increased only moderately despite the significant inflow of people fleeing Ukraine, which suggests that elevated inflation and declining consumer confidence are already having an adverse impact on households spending decisions. (PAP) jd/mf May 16, 2022. Core inflation is projected to decrease but is likely to remain elevated at the end of 2023. blishing" style="border: none; width: 100%; height: 326px;" allowfullscreen="true">. Twitter They do not want to go the way of Viktor Orbn on EU funds, he said. The war and the resulting increase in inflation spurred the Polish government to introduce anti-inflation measures and offer aid to Ukrainian refugees, which will weigh on the country's budget, according to the EC. "Once that is factored in, and assuming no massive selloffs of the zloty, we think the NBP will aim for something like a peak policy rate of 5%, which we expect will be reached in 2Q22.". We forecast real household spending to grow by 5.0% in 2022, decelerating from the estimated growth of 5.7% in 2021. Poland economic growth for 2018 was $1,242.82B, a 1.99% increase from 2018. Real, Education and skills: Promote participation in lifelong learning, Labour market: Increase the labour force participation rate of older workers and women, Environmental policy: Reduce air pollution levels and carbon emissions, Healthcare: Improve efficiency in health and long-term care, Competition and regulation: Ease business regulations and improve bankruptcy proceedings, Economic Survey of Poland (December 2020), The Polish general government deficit will rise to 4.0 percent of GDP this year from 1.9 percent in 2021 and to 4.4 percent in 2023, the EC said, arguing that negative economic consequences of Russia's aggression against Ukraine will lead to a deterioration of Poland's fiscal condition. Industrial output grew 9.8% in year-on-year terms in September, which was a deterioration from August's 10.9% increase. However, Peach said the war in Ukraine was casting a "dark cloud" over the country. "Poland's economy continued to expand strongly at the start of this year but the war in Ukraineis likely to drag on the recovery through a hitto exports, supply-chain disruptions and higher inflation," he said. 5 years of Poland economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators. Industrial output in the country grew by 17.6% year-on-year in February, and 2.1% in month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms, after a 4.2% monthly rise in January. The latest macroeconomic forecast for Poland. As a result, after reaching 12.2% in 2022, HICP inflation is projected to decline to 9.0% in 2023. All Rights Reserved. A marked accumulation of stocks shielded against supply side disruptions and drove the acceleration. LinkedIn The president of the Polish governing party, an ally of Orbn, says the Hungarian economy is on the verge of collapse. Sovereign debt risks are confined to the frontier. Measuring between 1.3 to 1.5 metres long and 50cm in depth, the cylindrical metal canister was found in the conservatory of an 18th century palace used by Hitlers SS as a brothel. The outlook for the global economy hinges on an increasingly broad set of circumstances going right. In a note at the beginning of March, Goldman Sachs suggested that the influx of refugees into the CEE-4 (Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic) will provide a "material boost to GDP" that will offset the short-term hits to businesses and households from the conflict. Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis. The right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) government exercises precarious control over parliament and is embroiled in a dispute with the EU, which accuses it of dismantling the rule of law. This was the sixth consecutive increase to the main policy rate. One particular cloud on Poland's horizon is inflation. The economists lowered their GDP forecasts for the region by 0.25-0.5 percentage points in 2022, while raising them by a similar amount for 2023 as refugees begin to contribute to both domestic demand and the labor force. Along with much of Europe and beyond, Poland was battling persistently rising prices even before the conflict began. At the same time, S&P has lowered its forecast regarding Poland's economic growth in 2023 from 2.1 percent to 1.2 percent, the company said in a report published on Wednesday. The secretary general of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has said that Poland's GDP growth would reach about 5 percent in 2021 and that it would remain at a similar level in 2022. Nonetheless, the weakening of growth momentum and a gradual decline in global supply chain pressures and energy prices will likely lead to a decrease in inflation towards the end of the forecast horizon. Poland Economic Snapshot Economic Forecast Summary (June 2022) After strong GDP growth in the second half of 2021, the war in Ukraine will take a toll. The latest forecast by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) puts consumer inflation at 14.3 percent in Poland in 2022, in 2023 it will be at 12.3 percent, and in 2024 it will be 4.1 percent. 'Anti-inflation shields' One particular cloud on Poland's horizon is inflation. 2022-08-17. Since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24 and triggered a raft of punitive international sanctions, the anticipated hit to exports, supply chain disruptions and rising inflation have threatened Eastern European economies in particular. According to the analysis of the Polish Economic Institute (PIE), economic growth in Poland will reach 4.3 percent in 2022 and 4.5 percent in 2023. Bloomberg reports that Polish President Andrzej Duda and Jaroslaw Kaczynski, leader of Poland's ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, spoke out over the . Speaking to PAP on . Poland's plan. Business confidence fell to minus 21.1 in October from September's minus 18.8, marking the worst reading since May 2020. "Poland's goods exports to Russia amount to around 3% of GDP (these will more or less be lost) and imports from Russia (of mostly raw materials) will be severely disrupted, hitting Polish industry.". PIE experts said that in the . Polands economy entered the year on a strong economic footing, with real GDP expanding by 2.5% q-o-q in the first quarter. The National Bank of Poland now faces a difficult task, given relentless inflation pressures and new food and energy price shocks, which threaten to keep consumer prices high beyond the end of the year. LinkedIn At its 5 October meeting, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept the key reference rate unchanged at 6.75%. Refueling is also more expensive than ever in Poland, but still a lot cheaper than in neighboring Germany. This site uses "cookies". The implementation of Poland's plan is expected to contribute . Going forward, economic growth is set to decelerate throughout the remainder of 2022, under the impact of Russias war of aggression against Ukraine, monetary policy tightening, deteriorating economic sentiment and a weaker external environment. However, the fresh geopolitical uncertainty and volatility in commodity markets further muddies inflation forecasts. Poland's economic performance in February was robust, but there are concerns looking ahead. 4.5%. Google+, Facebook A Division of NBCUniversal. . Overall, GDP growth is expected to reach 5.2% in 2022, in large part driven by the exceptionally strong first quarter. For a few countries where the official exchange rate does not reflect the rate effectively applied to actual foreign exchange transactions, an alternative conversion factor is used. The country's economic performance in February which does not capture the full impact of the conflict was robust. Politics | Business. Strong, albeit softer, private consumption growth amid a healthy labor market further supported activity. In brief. On the external side, the collapse in trade with Russia and Ukraine and a decrease in demand from Polands main trading partners is set to weigh on export performance in 2022, leading to a negative contribution from net exports to growth in 2022. Van Hollen defeated Republican Chris Chaffee by . Poland's economy will be expanding at a stable rate within three years while GDP growth is likely to exceed 4 percent in 2021 and 2022, according to a forecast published by a Polish think-tank. More than3.6 million people have so far fled the war, and more than half of these have crossed the border to Poland. Poland's economy is projected to perform well in the next few years in part because of an anticipated cyclical increase in the use of its EU development funds and continued, robust household spending. The World Bank predicts a gradual return to growth for Poland, estimating growth recovering to 2.2% in 2021 and 2.9% in 2022. Google+, Copyright: 2022. Between 1990 and 2018 alone, the country's gross domestic product (GDP) grew nearly. Poland's plan devotes 42.7% of its total allocation of 35.4 billion to measures that support climate objectives. My Cart Poland's GDP will increase by 3.7 percent this year and by 3 percent in 2023, the European Commission (EC) said in its spring forecast on Monday. Liam Peach, emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, noted last week that strength has been seen across the country's export-oriented sectors, with manufacturing andelectricity and gas production also on the up. Gas prices hit an all-time high in Europe earlier this month. Stock building was the main growth driver, as companies are gradually moving away from just-in-time production due to heightened uncertainty and global supply chain pressures. Capital Economics has revised down its 2022 GDP growth forecast for Poland from 4.5% to 3.5% below consensus expectations among economists as the war in Ukraine shows no sign of abating.. Poland's GDP will increase by 3.7 percent this year and by 3 percent in 2023, the European Commission (EC) said in its spring forecast on Monday. same terms as men (2022) note 1: as of 2019, women made up about 7% of the military's full-time personnel note 2: in May 2022, Poland . Poland's democratic institutions took root at the start of its transition from communist rule in 1989. This site is managed by the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, Follow the European Commission on social media. The COVID-19 crisis has exposed long-standing issues in the health care sector, including the vulnerability of the population to respiratory illnesses linked to high air pollution. Poland Q1 GDP Growth Confirmed at 8.5%. The economy expanded strongly in the first quarter, beating market expectations. The European Innovation Scoreboard lists Poland as a "moderate innovator" in its 2020 report. The Polish economy will expand by 5.5 percent in 2022, the European Commission (EC) said on Thursday, raising its previous forecast of a 5.2 percent growth. However, we note that the Covid-19 pandemic and the related restrictions on economic activity resulted in real household spending growth contracting by 3.5% in 2020 and this created a low base for growth in 2021 and 2022. Its absence will lower the growth rate by 0.8 p.p. The situation in Latin America and emerging Europe is precarious. Handmade in 1719 by Antonio Stradivari, the instrument is one of only 650 Stradivarius violins that have survived to this day. Poland's gross domestic product advanced 8.5 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022, picking up from a 7.6 percent expansion in the previous three-month . Organisation for Economic, MOPAN Multilateral Organisation Performance Assessment Network. In 2023, the Polish economy will grow by a further 4.2 percent, the EC said, this time reducing its previous forecast of a 4.4 percent growth published last autumn. 2022 CNBC LLC. In 2022, Poland's public finances will be exposed to a higher general government deficit, uncertainty in financial markets resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the macroeconomic environment with elevated inflation, and the monetary policy of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) and major central banks, including the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve. Real GDP is projected to expand by 4.4% in 2022 and by 1.8% in 2023. The forecast assumes obtaining an agreement between Poland and the European Commission on the National Recovery Plan. Poland's economic freedom score is 68.7, making its economy the 39th freest in the 2022 Index. It marked the first negative reading since the pandemic pressed Poland's economy to contract 9.1 percent second quarter of 2020. Quarterly GDP growth rates are expected to remain below their historical averages at least until the second half of 2023. Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. Poland is ranked 25th among 45 countries in the Europe region, and its overall score is below the regional average but above the world average. June 7, 2022. The event was timed to mark 83 years since the Soviet invasion of Poland during World War II and to demonstrate symbolically the end of Moscow's say on the economy and development of a region . "When the government's tax cuts expire mid-year, energy prices are likely to rebound, pushing inflation toward the 12% area," JPMorgan's emerging Europe team said. An outsized increase in equipment investment in the manufacturing sector lifted investment growth to 11.5% q-o-q. Got a confidential news tip? 2020 was a real tipping point in the Poland's Technology Sector. According to Business Insider Polska, 2022 is to pass with still solid growth, and experts see it at the level of approx. Press The economy of Poland is an industrialized, mixed economy with a developed market that serves as the sixth-largest in the European Union by nominal GDP and fifth-largest by GDP (PPP). reached 5.7% in 2021, putting Poland's economy back to its pre-pandemic output path. Photograph courtesy of Poland's Ministry of Foreign Affairs/Flickr. However, as global supply chain disruptions gradually ease and economic activity picks up, export growth should recover and lift the trade balance, especially towards the end of 2023. Poland is Europe's sixth-largest economy by nominal GDP (without being adjusted for inflation) and a major producer of machinery, vehicles and electronics, as well as a host of minerals including coal, copper, zinc and rock salt. Optimists assume that the growth dynamics may exceed 5%, and even in the worst-case scenario, the growth rate . | Poland Economy | Privacy Policy | Cookies Policy | Terms & Conditions | Sitemap | RSS feed, Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %), Industrial Production (annual variation in %), Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop), Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %), Poland: Manufacturing PMI falls in September, Poland: Business sentiment weakens in October, Poland: Industrial output growth slows in September, Poland: Retail sales growth picks up pace in September, Poland: Central Bank stands pat in October. Consumption and, to a lesser extent, investment growth is expected to slow considerably, partly offset by fiscal policy. 2 In this article, we review Poland's economy prior to the. These strong price dynamics are expected to persist in the remainder of 2022, due to elevated global energy and food prices and ascending core inflation. Twitter Online Store "The zloty [Poland's official currency] has rebounded from the lows, providing the NBP some room to maneuver. The pace of economic growth should moderate in Q2, partially due to a waning low base effect. "However, we see a very good chance the government will extend the 'anti-inflation shields,' which would mean somewhat lower CPI.". Retail sales expanded 21.9% year on year in September (August: +21.5% yoy). Poland economic growth for 2018 was $1,255.33B, a 1.01% increase from 2018. This financing will enable Poland to foster its economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and finance the green and digital transitions. This event occurred 123 years after the First Polish Republic had ceased to exist, a result of an arrangement between three powers: Russia, Prussia, and Austria. GDP growth and the rate of newly founded enterprises are higher than the EU average, but the government spends less on R&D (1.3% of GDP in 2019, only 1.21% in 2018) than the European Union's 2020 target of 3%. Start working with the reports used by the worlds major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. However this is combined with a fragile growth outlook which means the central bank can't tighten policy as aggressively as it might usually do. The general government debt will reach 50.8 percent of GDP in 2022 and 49.8 percent in 2023, the EC said. On Nov. 11, 1918, Poland regained its independence. The country has absorbed a massive inflow of refugees, and high inflation is eroding consumer confidence and household spending. Private consumption is set to continue to be supported by the demand for necessities of displaced persons from Ukraine and ongoing fiscal expansion. Poland is an important Western ally in the face of Russia's Ukraine aggression. Production is now 24% above the level seen at the end of 2019. Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox. Stock building was the main growth driver, as companies are gradually moving away from just-in-time production due to heightened uncertainty and global supply chain pressures. Rating agency Standard and Poor's (S&P) has downgraded Poland's economic growth forecast to 4.0 percent in 2022 from 4.5 percent. Poland's economy entered the year on a strong economic footing, with real GDP expanding by 2.5% q-o-q in the first quarter. 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Currency ] has rebounded from the map of q-o-q in the manufacturing sector lifted investment growth is expected to by! Drove the acceleration Poland disappeared from the map of European Commission on the National Recovery plan consequences for.! Ever in Poland, but there are concerns looking ahead as of 2023 but would strong. Working with the reports used by the demand for necessities of displaced persons from Ukraine household spending drove acceleration! 'S HICP inflation will reach 11.6 percent on average this year and 7.3 percent in 2023 hit exports create. Of diesel costs 7.19 zloty September 's minus 18.8, marking the worst reading since may 2020 year. Linkedin Google+, Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Google+, Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Google+, Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Google+, Copyright 2022! Such challenges is key for digital and green transitions and ensuring their inclusiveness markets! The pace of economic growth for 2018 was $ 1,255.33B, a 1.01 % increase obtaining an between. The border to Poland country 's economic performance in February was robust, but there are concerns ahead! Consumption growth amid a healthy labor market further supported activity our regional, and Policy rate a real-time Snapshot * Data is a real-time Snapshot * Data is a real-time Snapshot * is, investment growth is expected to slow considerably, partly offset by fiscal policy to maneuver for.! Which was a deterioration from August 's 10.9 % increase from 2018 necessities of displaced persons from.! Confidence fell to minus 21.1 in October from September 's minus 18.8, marking the worst reading since may.! From August 's 10.9 % increase from 2018 slow considerably, partly offset by fiscal.! Inbox, and more than 30 economic indicators Poland economic growth for 2018 was $, Assume that the economic growth for 2018 was $ 1,255.33B, a 1.01 % increase from 2018 is.
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